Philip Rivers Signing Boosts Colts Futures Odds, Especially In The AFC South

Posted on March 20, 2020

Philip Rivers has reached an agreement with the Indianapolis Colts on a one-year deal worth $25 million.

The former Chargers quarterback hit the free-agent market with his sights set on either Tampa Bay or Indianapolis.

Signing Rivers puts the future of Jacoby Brissett up in the air. Teams like the Patriots and the Chargers that are in need of a new quarterback could come calling. However, the Colts might hold onto Brissett for now in case the Rivers experiment heads south.

Another drop in production is certainly a concern for Rivers. Last season, he went 0-6 in his divisional games while throwing 20 interceptions throughout the season.

How Colts betting odds shifted after signing Rivers

Since so many sports have been taken off the board as a result of COVID-19 concerns, NFL futures are one of the few things left to bet on.

Basketball dominated Indiana sports betting in February. However, football has a chance to make up some ground with the NCAA season canceled and NBA games on hold.

Despite Rivers sporting his lowest quarterback rating since 2007 last season, signing the 38-year-old still gave Indy’s odds a small boost.

DraftKings had the Colts slated at +250 to win the AFC South prior to the signing. With Rivers on the roster, the Colts are now+150 to take the division.

The Colts are still a longshot pick to take home the upcoming season’s AFC Championship, although the team’s odds did improve a bit in that regard as well.

Originally, the Colts were +1,500 to come out on top of the AFC. After signing Rivers, that number has moved to +1,300.

The team’s Super Bowl odds also improved, although again, the Colts are still a long shot here.

Originally, Indianapolis was sitting at +3,000 odds to win Super Bowl LV. Now the Colts are at +2,800.

The win total for the Colts has shifted a bit as well. Bettors can now take the over/under on the team’s 8.5 win total, which was at 7.5 before the Rivers signing.

Although all of those odds did improve after the Colts agreed on a deal with Rivers, that movement has ultimately been pretty minimal.

It shows that even though sportsbooks see the signing as an improvement for the team, they don’t see Rivers propelling the Colts to contender status.

The team’s odds have only moved a bit since the signing, but that does still make a difference, especially for division betting.

How the Colts’ new odds compare to other teams

That Rivers-related bump has now made Indianapolis the favorite to win the AFC South.

Originally, the Colts lagged behind the Titans and the Texans, but the team has now inched ahead. The +150 mark for the Colts slides the team past the Titans, who are now +160.

The Texans are now at +300 after opening as the +150 favorites. That slide is likely due, at least partially, to the team trading away star receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are still the black sheep of the division. Right now, the Jags are a distant +1,400 to take the AFC South.

Even though the Colts are sitting at +1,300 to become AFC Champions next season, they’re still expected to be one of the better teams in the conference.

The team is in a three-way tie with the Bills and the Steelers for the fourth-best odds to win the conference. The three AFC teams ahead of them are the +300 Chiefs, the +400 Ravens, and the +800 Patriots.

It would be a surprise if Indianapolis made a serious run at next season’s Super Bowl title. The Colts are at +2,800, which puts them in a tie with the Bills, Rams, and Steelers for the 12th-best odds in the NFL.

Overall, the Colts are expected to hover around .500 next season. Those odds could present a nice value for bettors.

Those who are particularly low on the Rivers signing could grab a nice value betting on other teams to win the division. Fans of the team’s move might take the over on Indy’s 8.5 win total for the year.

However, NFL free agency is still pretty fresh. These odds are subject to change as the dust settles, and teams continue to sign players.

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Jake Garza

Jake Garza is a sports writer based in Indianapolis, IN. He's an Indiana University graduate who's spent time as a sports reporter covering teams at the prep, collegiate and professional levels.

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