The Andrew Luck retirement announcement came as a surprise to fans. Since Luck announced he was hanging it up, sportsbooks have been reeling to adjust as well.
While many books have refunded bets dependent on Luck’s performance this season, all of them have to adjust Indianapolis Colts odds on a myriad of bets. Most don’t see Indianapolis as a legitimate contender in the AFC without Luck.
The immediate impact of Andrew Luck retirement on sports betting
Indiana sports betting isn’t scheduled to go live until Sept. 1, so the casinos in Indiana have time to adjust before opening their books. Books operating in places like Las Vegas have issued refunds for bets on Luck winning the league MVP this year.
That’s one set of odds that was drastically altered by Luck’s retirement. Luck had been +900 on many books to be the MVP this season.
Luck’s retirement made the MVP short odds for players like Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes even shorter. The same goes for contenders on bets like which player will lead the 2019 NFL season in passing yards in 2019.
There are ramifications for not only players on other teams but other teams as well. Divisional futures in the AFC South have altered drastically.
New AFC South futures and win totals after Luck retirement
Books made Indianapolis their clear favorite to win the AFC South with Luck under center. That script has flipped entirely, with the Colts now having the longest odds to win the division.
The Houston Texans are now the favorite at books across the country to repeat as AFC South champions. Vegas has Indianapolis winning the division 4/1, and William Hill has a line of +550 on the same.
Bookmakers expected the Colts to win 9.5 or 10 games by various books before Luck’s retirement. That’s been reduced to 6.5 or 7 depending on the book.
The best action available on Indianapolis’ win expectancy now is on DraftKings and Sugarhouse, which offer a line of +100 on the under of 6.5 wins.
Oddsmakers might adjust those lines when they see how new Colts starter Jacoby Brissett performs, along with what Indianapolis does to provide a backup for him.
Jacoby Brissett futures and other Colts props
Brissett begins his term as the Colts starter as a long shot to achieve statistical supremacy. DraftKings and Sugarhouse have him +20000 to lead the NFL in passing yards for example.
A larger effect is how the change under center affects futures for other Colts players. Before Luck’s retirement, T.Y. Hilton was +2000 on William Hill to lead the league in receiving yards.
Hilton is now +3300 to do the same. PointsBet hasn’t downgraded Hilton’s likelihood of catching the most touchdown passes yet, holding that steady at an identical +3300.
Those odds could change, however, based on what Indianapolis does regarding the backup for Brissett situation. All the other quarterbacks besides Brissett on the roster combined for one total appearance in a regular-season NFL game between them.
Rumors link the Colts to several trade options like Pittsburgh’s Josh Dobbs and New Orleans’ Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has starting experience in the NFL, something Indianapolis will likely value if Brissett falters.
The Colts could be waiting to see how all the league’s final roster cuts shape out before making a decision on a backup.
Indiana sportsbooks are likely also in a wait-and-see mode right now, as the team around Brissett is talented but how well Brissett will perform in the wake of Luck’s retirement is a huge question.