IU Looking To Pull Off Major Upset Against Ohio State To Go 5-0

Posted on November 19, 2020 - Last Updated on November 20, 2020

The IU Hoosiers will play the most important game of their season so far when they travel to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday afternoon. Indiana sportsbooks are banking heavily on an Ohio State victory in the latest Indiana football odds.

The noon ET kickoff on FOX is the highlight of the early slate of games. It pits two top-10 teams against each other in a contest that will give the winner a leg up on the Big Ten East division title.

That’s why despite the Hoosiers’ long odds, sportsbooks are keen to take action on the matchup.

IU, Ohio State football odds at IN sportsbooks

It’s safe to say that Indiana sportsbooks are confident that Ohio State will defend the Horseshoe easily.

SportsbookMoneylineSpreadTotal
BetMGMIND +630
OHST -1000
IND +20.5 -106
OHST -20.5 -115
O 65.5 -115
U 65.5 -106
BetRiversIND +650
OHST -1115
IND +20.5 -107
OHST -20.5 -113
O 66 -112
U 66 -109
DraftKingsIND +650
OHST -1115
IND +20.5 -107
OHST -20.5 -113
O 66 -112
U 66 -109
FanDuelIND +710
OHST -1200
IND +20.5 -110
OHST -20.5 -110
O 66 -116
U 66 -114
PointsBetIND +670
OHST -1000
IND +20.5 -110
OHST -20.5 -110
O 66 -110
U 66 -110
William HillIND +700
OHST -1100
IND +20.5 -110
OHST -20.5 -110
O 65 -110
U 65 -110

Indiana pulling off this upset could represent a big liability for the books if a lot of the action goes on the Hoosiers. While taking Indiana on the moneyline to win outright might be a way to enjoy a big payout on a relatively small wager, the numbers don’t suggest that’s anything more than a flier.

Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields is completing over 87% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception on the season. Ohio State’s two-headed running game with Master Teague III and Trey Sermon is also quite productive, making outscoring Ohio State on its own turf a tall task.

Additionally, it’s fair to criticize the Hoosiers’ schedule to this point. Penn State has yet to win a game. Michigan has far underperformed compared to preseason expectations. On top of that, Michigan State and Rutgers are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten by several statistical measures.

So while staking a lot of cash on an Indiana upset doesn’t seem smart, there’s reason to believe this contest could be closer than the near-three touchdown difference the books prognosticate. The Hoosiers have trends on their side.

The smart action might be on the Hoosiers spread

The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor Saturday and there are no significant injuries for either team. Indiana has earned its spot in the top-10 of the polls by defying odds all season long.

The Hoosiers haven’t failed to cover against the spread so far this season. Additionally, Indiana is 5-0 ATS in the Horseshoe over its last five trips.

What’s more, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams. More often than not, that’s been the Hoosiers. Indiana seems poised to upset the spread in this game for another reason.

The Buckeyes allow 224.3 yards on average per game through the air this season. What’s more, Ohio State has just one interception through three games.

This might be a game when the Buckeyes could improve on that statistic. Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throws one pick for every three touchdown passes on average this season. However, he’s completing over 61% of his pass attempts and has two rushing touchdowns.

This contest will be the biggest challenge for Indiana’s top-20 defense yet. If they can expose the Buckeyes’ suspect pass defense, they have a shot to make a game of this.

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Derek Helling

Derek Helling is a freelance journalist who resides in Chicago. He is a 2013 graduate of the University of Iowa and covers the intersections of sports with business and the law.

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